甘肃省环境库兹涅茨曲线估计及其驱动因子分析

Estimation of Environmental Kuznets Curve and its driven factors analysis in Gansu Province

选取甘肃省1991-2009年经济与环境数据,建立了甘肃省经济增长与环境污染水平计量模型。利用分解分析方法将甘肃省经济增长的环境效应分解为规模效应、结构效应以及技术效应,并以废气排放总量为例进行了定量测算与分析。结果表明:(1)甘肃省"三废"排放量的环境库兹涅茨曲线并不符合倒"U"型假设。其中,废气排放量和固体废弃物产生量的环境库兹涅茨曲线均为单调递增的直线;废水排放量的环境库兹涅茨曲线为"U"型曲线的左侧部分。(2)2002-2009年,规模效应、结构效应及技术效应分别为122.334 7%5、9.367 6%和-41.589 1%,规模效应与结构效应同环境污染水平均呈正相关关系。

The environmental Kuznets curve is a hypothesized relationship between various indicators of environmental degradation and income per capita.In the early stage of economic growth,the environment quality is continuously degraded with economic development;after the economic growth reaches to a critical point,the environment quality will get improvement constantly with economic growth.This implies that the environmental impact indicator is an inverted U-shaped function of income per capita.The EKC is named for Kuznets who hypothesized income inequality first rises and then falls as economic development proceeds.As an alternative to the EKC,an increasing number of studies on the decompositions of emissions into the proximate sources of emissions changes appeared.These theoretical explanations focus on the following aspects: economical scale and structure,international trade,technology progress and political variables etc.In this paper,we firstly tested the empirical relationship between the environmental degradation and economic growth,taking Gansu province as case study.Using the data of waste water discharge,waste gas emission and solid waste production from 1991 to 2009,we estimated and analyzed the contribution of economic scale,industrial structure and waste gas emission intensity to waste gas emission quantitatively from 2002 to 2009,namely scale effects,structural effects and technique effects using the Grossman decomposition method,which can quantify the contribution of each factor in the change of pollution emission and has been used widely.The results showed as follows: Firstly,the evidence presented in this paper showed that the statistical analysis on which the environmental Kuznets curve is based was not robust.From the study we could not find that the relationship between environmental deterioration and economic growth had an obvious inverted U-shape.Both the waste gas emission and solid waste production had approximate linear relationships with per captia GDP and increased monotonously.And the EKC for waste water discharge presented the left part of the decline phase of the'U-type'curve.Both waste gas emission and solid waste production increased unambiguously with rising income.While there was a monotonic decreasing relation between waste water and per capita.Secondly,the average of the effect changes of waste gas emission in Gansu province was 140.113 1%,the effects brought by economic scale,industrial structure and waste gas emission intensity were 122.334 7%,59.367 6% and-41.589 1% respectively.The values of economic scale and industrial structure were positive,which meant economic scale and industrial structure were primary drive factors and had increment effects to waste gas emission.While the value of waste gas emission intensity was negative,that was to say technological progress contributed a 41.589 1% reduction in waste gas emission,but the restrain function was still not obvious.Thirdly,this study on the decomposition of pollution change would promote understanding the theory about the relationship between the environmental degradation and economic growth,and provided reference value by all means to the coordinated development between economy and environment.