组合预测法在电力负荷预测中应用

Application of combination forecasting method in power load forecast

由于电力系统负荷具有很多不确定的因素,用单一模型进行负荷预测时,其预测精度不高。采用组合预测法对能很好反映负荷变化规律的模型赋予较大的权重,从而提高负荷预测精度,示例计算表明组合预测法的预测精度明显高于各单一模型的预测精度。

There are many uncertain factors in power system load . When only single forecasting model is used,the precision may not be high. The combination forecasting method gives bigger weight to the models,which better conform with the variation of power load,and improves the precision. The sample calculation shows the truth.