经济增长、能源消耗与二氧化碳排放脱钩关系研究

Study on the Decoupling Relationship between Economic Growth,Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

随着全球资源与环境危机进一步加深,"经济-能源-环境"问题成为国内外学者研究的焦点。为此利用Tapio模型分析我国2000—2010年间经济增长与二氧化碳排放之间的脱钩关系,并构造因果链将脱钩指标分解为节能脱钩指标和减排脱钩指标。研究表明:无论是就全国范围还是各区域而言,总脱钩指标和节能脱钩指标的变化均具有明显的一致性,且后者是前者变化的主要原因。在2000—2010年间的大部分年份内,总脱钩指标位于0和1之间,处于弱脱钩状态;就横向比较而言,总脱钩指标和节能脱钩指标的数值分布呈现出明显的区域性特征,但减排脱钩指标的分布无明显的区域性特征,且在时间维度上也无显著的变化。

With the global crisis of resources and environment deepened,'economy-energy and environment' become a hot topic for the study of domestic and foreign scholars.This paper chooses Tapio model to analyse the decoupling relationship between economy growth and carbon dioxide emissions in China's east,central,west and northeast area,and decompose the decoupling index into energy saving decoupling index and emissions abating decoupling index with causal chain.The empirical results show that regardless in the scope of national or regional,total decoupling index was consistent with energy saving decoupling index,and the latter was the main reason for the change of the former.In most of years from 2000 to 2010,the total decoupling index volatiled between 0 and 1,which was in weak decoupling status.On the horizontal level,the total decoupling index and energy saving decoupling index numerical distribution showed regional features apparently,but the emissions abating decoupling index had no space features,and there was no significant change in time dimension,neither.Finally,the article pointed out that decoupling index is superior to carbon intensity as index for quota allocation and performance-assessment.The improvement of energy efficiency and the optimization of industrial structure and energy structure are the main ways for the work of energy saving and emissions abating in the future.