瞬变涡扰动法在极端天气事件预报中的应用

Transient Eddy Method and its Application on the Forecast of Extreme Weather Events

实际天气图上的系统由多尺度波和多尺度涡组成。Rossby对天气预报的重大贡献是提出了大气长波。全球数值天气预报谱模式把观测大气变量分解成了若干尺度的数学波,而没有天气尺度的涡。大气变量物理分解可得到逐日气候波、行星尺度的瞬变波和天气尺度的瞬变涡。实际的天气变化是由逐日气候波、行星尺度瞬变波和天气尺度瞬变涡的叠加或相互作用形成的。与极端天气事件直接有关的是那些瞬变涡,因此极端天气事件的预报可用瞬变涡扰动法。

On the actual weather map,the weather system consists of multi-scale waves and multi-scale eddies.Rossby proposed the atmospheric long-wave theory which has a significant contribution to the weather forecast in the past decades.Global numerical weather prediction spectral model decomposed atmospheric variables into multi-scale mathematical waves without the synoptic-scale eddies.Physical decomposition of atmospheric variables can be used to differentiate the daily climatic waves from planetary-scale transient waves and synoptic-scale transient eddies.Extreme weather events are directly related to the synoptic-scale transient eddies so that extreme weather events can be forecasted by the method of transient eddies.The actual weather evolution is formed from their overlap or interaction of daily climatic waves,the planetary-scale transient waves and synoptic-scale transient eddies.