摘要
Based on tropical cyclone (TC) data for the period 1949 to 2008 and following the Gumbe-Imethod, Pearson-Ⅲ method and determinacy method, this article estimates the possible minimum centralpressure of TCs affecting southern Fujian where a nuclear power will be located. Results show that theobserved minimum central pressure of TCs agrees well with the results determined with the methods aboveand there is little difference between them (the minimum central pressure is 867.4 hPa and 868.1 hPa,respectively, in a 1,000-yr return period). Established with the theory of atmospheric dynamics, thedeterminacy method yields a result of 867.28 hPa/1000 years, only a little smaller than the result of theprobability method. Because of randomicity in parameter adjustment with the Pearson-Ⅲ method whereasthe determinacy method is theoretically solid and its estimates are the smallest of the three methods, it istherefore reasonable, for security and conservative concerns, to adopt the result determined with thedeterminacy method as the possible maximum intensity of TC (with the central pressure being 867.28 hPa ina 1,000-yr return period).
Based on tropical cyclone (TC) data for the period 1949 to 2008 and following the Gumbe-Imethod, Pearson-Ⅲ method and determinacy method, this article estimates the possible minimum centralpressure of TCs affecting southern Fujian where a nuclear power will be located. Results show that theobserved minimum central pressure of TCs agrees well with the results determined with the methods aboveand there is little difference between them (the minimum central pressure is 867.4 hPa and 868.1 hPa,respectively, in a 1,000-yr return period). Established with the theory of atmospheric dynamics, thedeterminacy method yields a result of 867.28 hPa/1000 years, only a little smaller than the result of theprobability method. Because of randomicity in parameter adjustment with the Pearson-Ⅲ method whereasthe determinacy method is theoretically solid and its estimates are the smallest of the three methods, it istherefore reasonable, for security and conservative concerns, to adopt the result determined with thedeterminacy method as the possible maximum intensity of TC (with the central pressure being 867.28 hPa ina 1,000-yr return period).
基金
Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province(2007J0122)
Natural Science Foundation of China(90915002)
