高速公路网突发交通事件时空影响预测模型

Prediction Model of Freeway Network Traffic Incident Space Time Effect——An Introduction to Topic Ⅲ of Project Ⅵ

提出了交通事件持续时间4个阶段的定义,分别建立了4个阶段的时间预测模型。在传统密闭道路集散波模型的基础上,提出了考虑汇入汇出匝道及衔接道路的路网事件辐射范围预测模型。采用面向对象的编程思想,构造了集散波类并模拟集散波在路网中的辐射过程,通过渲染地图来展示事件辐射态势。利用交通仿真技术,验证了时空影响预测模型能够有效地描述不同时间阶段交通事件在路网上的辐射范围。

Based on the stage definition of traditional incident duration,the prediction models of incident different stage duration were proposed respectively.The prediction models of incident different stage duration provide key input parameters for the predictive modeling of the influence of the traffic accident.The prediction model of freeway network incident radiation scope about on-off ramp was proposed based on traditional closed segment wave models.The traffic-wave class was created by using object-oriented programming to simulate the whole processing of incident wave radiation in the freeway network.Furthermore,the GIS map was played to show the situation of radiation scope.Finally,the AIMSUN simulation test result indicates that this network radiation prediction model can represent actual incident influence range when the initial traffic volume is not extremely high.