人口增长、城市化对CO_2排放的影响

Impact of Population Growth and Urbanization on CO_2 Emissions

基于1998-2007省际面板数据,利用STIPAT模型,就人口增长、城市化及产业结构的变动等因素对CO_2排放的影响进行实证研究。实证结果表明,对于不同的地区,人口增长、城市化和工业化水平对环境的影响不同:发达城市,体现出很强的后工业化时代特征,人口增长是其二氧化碳排放增加的主要原因,城市化水平提高和工业化水平的变化对二氧化碳排放影响不明显。东部和中西部省份来说,处于工业化推动的城市化阶段,能源强度的增加、城市化水平和工业水平的提高均对二氧化碳的排放有正影响,人口增长对东部二氧化碳排放有显著正的影响,而对中西部省份二氧化碳排放的影响不显著。

Based on the 1998 -2007 provincial panel data,using STIPAT model,this paper made a study of the impact of population growth,urbanization and industrial structure changes on the environment.Empirical results show that for different regions,the impact of population growth,urbanization and industrialization level on environmental is different:developed cities have a strong feature of postindustrial era,population growth is the main reason for the increase in carbon dioxide emissions,the level of urbanization enhancement and changes in the level of industrialization have no significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions.For the eastern and western provinces, the promotion of industrialization and urbanization and the increase in energy intensity,have a positive influence on carbon dioxide emissions.Population growth has significant impact on the eastern part carbon dioxide emissions in the eastern provinces,for the central and western provinces,the impact of population growth on carbon dioxide emissions is not significant.