不同灌溉水源供水可靠性的评估

Assessment on Water Supply Reliability of Different Irrigation Water Sources

建国以来,尽管我国在农田水利设施建设方面进行了一些投资,但在有效提供灌溉供水方面仍然面临着巨大挑战;因而深入理解不同灌溉水源的供水可靠性对于制定合理投资政策具有十分重要的现实意义。本文所用数据基于全国7个省123个村的大规模实地调研。调研结果表明,过去5年(2006～2010年)有三分之一的年份存在灌溉供水不可靠的状况。计量经济学模型的分析结果表明,相对于运用水泵从河流湖泊提水这类灌溉水源,由机井、水池以及灌区提供的灌溉供水的可靠程度较高;而水库和水窖提供的灌溉供水可靠程度较低。

Despite Chinese government has made some investments on irrigation infrastructure,how to provide effective irrigative water supply is still facing with huge challenges.Therefore,improving understanding of water supply reliability from various irrigation water sources will benefit the design of irrigation investment policies.The data of this paper come from one large field survey in 123 villages in 7 provinces in China.The results of the survey show,water supply was not reliable in one third of past 5 years(2006-2010).The analysis of econometric models indicate that compared with pumping water from rivers,water supply reliabilities depending on tubewells,ponds and irrigation districts are higher,while water supply reliabilities from reservoirs and cisterns are much lower.