公平与不确定性:全球碳排放分配的关键问题

Equity and Uncertainty:The Key Problems for the Allocation of World Carbon Emissions

气候变化问题引起了全世界对碳排放分配(减排)的广泛研究。总括国内外提出的各种排放权分配方案,可以分为两大类:一类是发达国家倡导的,以当前排放现状和长期全球减排目标下的人均排放趋同为基础;另一类是部分发展中国家倡导的,考虑历史责任,以人均累积排放为基础。但由于大气的公共资源性质和各国温室气体排放时间的差异,达成一致同意的减排方案实属不易。其中影响最大的两个因素,一是对公平原则认识上的分歧;一是碳排放所产生的生态和经济影响的不确定性。本文对国内外碳排放分配研究代表性方案、主要的公平原则、不确定性等做了较为全面的回顾。

Climate change has been researched broadly in the world on the allocation(reduction)of carbon emissions.A wide assortment of carbon emission allocation projects,generally concluded,can be classified into two kinds:one is based on the emission status quo and the convergence of per capita emissions under the long-term global emission reduction targets,which was advocated by developed countries;the other is,considering historical obligation,based on average cumulative emission per capita,which was advocated by developing countries.But due to the nature of common resource of atmosphere and the differences in times for carbon emissions among countries,it is not easy to come to agreement with on the emission reduction projects.There are two biggest factors affecting the projects:one is the diversity on the principle of fairness,and the other is the uncertainty of ecological and economic influences brought about by greenhouse gas emissions.This paper does a more comprehensive review on the principle of fairness,uncertainty and the representative programs for the allocation of carbon emissions studied at home and abroad.