基于实物期权理论的低碳住宅项目评价

Research on the Appraisal of Low-carbon Housing Projects Based on the Real Options Theory

针对低碳住宅项目不确定性高、周期长和投资决策分阶段的特点,引入实物期权理论,建立基于Geske复合期权的投资评价模型,弥补了传统贴现现金流法(DCF)和单阶段实物期权方法在实际应用中的不足。结合某低碳住宅项目实例进行数值计算,结果表明模型具有较好的实用性和稳定性,有助于决策者合理、科学地评估项目风险,避免了项目价值的低估以及投资机会的流失。

Owing to low-carbon housing projects have the characteristics of high uncertainty,long life cycle and periodical decisionmaking of investment,the paper introduces the theory of real options to establish an investment evaluation model based on Geske compound option.The paper makes up the deficiencies of the traditional discounted cash flow method(DCF)and single-stage real options method in practical applications process.It takes a low-carbon housing project for example,the calculation results show that the model has good practicability and stability to help decision-makers assess the risks of projects rationally and scientifically,and avoid of underestimating the value of the project and the outflow of investment opportunities.