我国二氧化硫排放强度地区差异分解分析

Decomposition Analysis of Regional SO_2 Emission Intensity in China

本文在分析我国SO2排放现状的基础上,运用LMDI方法系统地分解了中国1997-2007年各省市自治区的SO2排放强度,并进行了东、中、西地区差异分解分析。为分析减排政策对排放强度变化的影响,对各地区1997-2000年、2001-2005年,及2006-2007年的排放强度进行了分解。分析结果显示:在能源强度变化、排放强度变化和排放系数变化这三个引起SO2排放强度变化的主要影响因素中,能源强度变化对我国SO2排放强度变化起到了最为显著的作用;我国SO2排放强度存在较为明显的地区差异,在不同的地区,SO2排放强度变化的主要影响因素不完全一致;近十年来,能源强度变化导致的SO2排放强度削减量和排放系数变化引起的SO2年均排放强度变化率从东部向西部递增;从十五时期开始,东、中、西三个地区的年均排放强度开始下降,排放系数变化开始使排放强度降低。因此,要把提高能源利用效率作为重要工作方向。建议按照东、中、西地区不同的实际情况实行灵活的减排政策。

Based on a residual-free decomposition analysis method(LMDI method) as well as the current situation of SO_2 emission,this paper analyzes SO_2 emission intensity of China's provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions from 1997 to 2007,and tries to find out the differences among the eastern,central and western regions.In order to see the emission reduction policies' impact on the changes of emission intensity,decomposition is also made in all 3 regions for the periods of 1997-2000,2001-2005 and 2006-2007.Overall,energy intensity change has played a most significant role in reducing SO_2 emissions intensity;China's SO_2 emission intensity is different from region to region,and so are its the main factor;emission intensity increment caused by energy intensity change as well as annual average rate of emission intensity increment caused by emission coefficient change increase from east to west;since 2001,the annual average emission intensity began to decrease,and the emission coefficient began to make emission intensity decrease;the reduction of emission intensity caused by energy intensity change mainly happen during 1997-2000.Therefore,energy efficiency improvement should be vigorously promoted.Flexible emission reduction policies are suggested in accordance with actual situations of distinct regions in China.