21世纪初期非洲发展前景展望

An outlook of the development prospect of Africa in the early 21st century

非洲人民最大心愿是使２１世纪成为非洲发展的世纪，实现该愿望存在着有利和不利因素。就非洲内部而言，非洲新领导层出现、资源丰富和政策调整属有利因素；不利因素是战乱不止、资金匮乏以及科技落后等。就外部而言，同样有这两个方面。因此，下个世纪初期，非洲总体经济还只能为起飞作准备。

Abstract The greatest aspiration of the African people is to turn the new century into a century for African development. There are favorable and unfavorable factors to fulfill this aspiration. For Africa itself, the emergence of new leadership in Africa, abundant national resources and ongoing policy readjustment are favorable factors; prolonged conflicts, shortages of capital and low level of science and technology are unfavorable ones. As for the outside world, favorable and unfavorable factors also exist. Therefore, at the beginning of the new century, Africa can only make preparation for the take off of its overall economy. The real fast growth may come at a later date.