基于STIRPAT模型的武汉市环境影响驱动力分析

ANALYSIS ON THE DRIVING FORCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT IN WUHAN BASED ON STIRPAT MODEL

面对日益严重的环境问题,不仅要了解导致环境问题的各种驱动力,更应建立模型来精确描述环境影响与驱动力之间的关系。以武汉市为例,应用SPSS软件、以STIRPAT模型为依据,建立了描述环境影响与各驱动力之间精确关系的数个模型。模型计算结果表明:人口总量的增长和人类发展指数的上升是最主要的环境影响驱动力,城市化率、人均GDP等因素对环境也有影响;第三产业比重的上升有助于减小环境影响;基尼系数对环境几乎没有影响。以此为据,就如何改变这些影响因素,以减小环境影响提出了建议。除了人口总量等常规指标,还分析了人类发展指数、城市化率、基尼系数等指标,充实了环境影响驱动力指标体系,更客观反映了造成武汉市环境问题的原因。

Faced with increasingly serious environmental problems,we not only try to understand the the various driving forces resulting in environmental problems,but also should establish an model to accurately describe the relationship between environmental impact and driving forces.In this paper,taking Wuhan city as an example,with the help of SPSS software and STIRPAT model,we establish a model to describe the precise relationship between environmental impact and the driving forces.The results show that population and human development index were the most important driving forces impacting the the environment,urbanization and wealth also had impact on the environment.The increasing of the proportion of tertiary industry would help reduce the environmental impact.Gini coefficient had little impact on the environment.Based on this,some suggestions about how to reduce the environmental impact come up.In addition to population and other conventional indicators,this paper also analyzed the human development index,urbanization,Gini coefficient and so on,which had enriched the indicator system of the driving forces of the environmental impact and reflected the cause of the environmental problems more objectively.