北极航线的海运经济潜力评估及其对我国经济发展的战略意义

The Economic Estimate of Arctic Sea Routes and Its Strategic Significance for the Development of Chinese Economy

近30年来,北极地区发生了快速增暖现象,北冰洋海冰正在加速融化。最新预测,北冰洋10年内将出现夏季无冰年,打通连接欧洲、北美东部和东亚地区的新的海上航运通道。本文计算了我国未来北极远洋航线的海运里程和成本,并分析了该航线对于我国国际贸易和沿海经济发展的影响。分析表明:(1)利用北极航线,中国沿海诸港到北美东岸的航程相差不大,约比走巴拿马运河的传统航线节省2000~3500海里;到欧洲各港口的航程差别比较大,上海以北港口到欧洲西部、北海、波罗的海等港口比传统航线航程短25%~55%。(2)到2020年,如果北极航线完全打开,用北极航线替代传统航线,每年可节省533亿~1274亿美元的国际贸易海运成本。(3)北极航线将使拥有丰富能源资源储藏量的北极地区有可能成为我国海外资源采购的主要目的地之一,从而促进我国与北极国家的贸易。(4)北极航线的开通,将大大拉近欧、北美和东亚等大市场的距离,导致国际分工和产业布局发生变化,进而影响我国沿海地区产业分工和经济发展战略布局。

The climate of circumpolar Arctic is getting warmer for almost 30 years,and the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is rapidly reducing.According to the latest forecast,the sea ice will be thawed totally in summer within 10 years,which will enable a new sea route to connect the Europe,east of North America and East Asia.It is described in this article that how long the arctic sea routes is and what the cost will be,Also analyzed the future impact upon international trade and coastal economic development once the sea routes opened.The article contains below four items: 1),Arctic sea routes will be shorter nearly 2000～3500 nautical miles than the customary routes from Chinese coastal ports to the east of North America,and reduce 25%～55% of the customary routes from the ports north of Shanghai to the ports of West Europe,North Sea and Baltic Sea;2),It will reduce $53.3～127.4 billion yearly of Chinese international trade costs by shipping through the arctic sea routes till 2020;3),the transportation of oil,gas,coal and other minerals will be more convenient,Arctic will become one of destination of Chinese purchase overseas.It will promote international trade activities between China and the countries of circumpolar Arctic as well;4),it will shorten the distance of the biggest markets between Europe,east Asia and the east of North America,and thus changes the international industrial division,in turn will also strongly impact strategic significance to developing Chinese economy in coastal regions.