岩土综合热物性参数的不确定性分析

Uncertainty Analysis on the Parameters of the Rock-Soil Thermal Properties

基于随机理论,提出一种新的岩土综合热物性参数的不确定性分析方法.统计测试参数误差,据此产生一系列随机数作为参数样本,计算得一系列热物性参数,对其统计分析获其均值、置信区间等.分析该方法的实际应用.研究表明:该方法可反映岩土热物性随机特性,增加其实用性和可靠度.随机产生的数据样本组数达一定数量后,组数对热物性结果影响可不计.

A new uncertainty analysis method for calculating the parameters of the rock-soil thermal properties was presented based on the random theory.In this method,the measurement errors of the testing data were statistically analyzed in order to obtain a series of random number as the sample data of the testing parameters.A series of the parameters of the rock-soil thermal properties could be calculated from the sample data and statistically analyzed.The averages,the standard deviations and the confidence interval of the parameters were obtained.An application of the method on a project was discussed.The results show that the method can reflect the random character of the rock soil thermal properties and increase its practicability and reliability.The class number of sample data randomly generated has little effect on the results of thermal properties when it reaches to a certain number.