历史上10年—100年尺度气候跃变的分析

An Analysis of Decade - to - Century - scale Climatic Jumps in History

利用史料重建了华北海河流域和陕西关中地区两千多年来的旱涝变化概况。采用移动符号检验法和移动Ｔ检验法分析了其中的几十和几百年尺度的跃变现象。通过比较海河、关中以及河南等地区的同期变化，区分出局地性和非局地性两类跃变事件；并通过个例分析指出了华北地区气候跃变和季风环流形势的可能联系。本文还对１０＾１－１０＾２年尺度气候跃变的发生频率和变化程度作了一般估计。

The flood/drought grade series of last 2000 years were reconstructed based on historical documents for Haihe and Xian regions in North China. The decade- and century - scale climaticjumps in the series were analyzed and large-scale jumps were recognized by comparing the different regional changes.It was noted by case study that North China might be a sensitive areaof climatic jump which related to East Asian Monsoon system. The paper discusses the frequency of jumps and the rate of the change during a jump.