乌鲁木齐近50年气温变化与城市化发展关系

THE CHANGES OF AIR TEMPERATURE IN URUMQI IN RECENT 50 YEARS AND ITS RELATION TO URBANIZATION

采用线性倾向估计、累积距平、M-K检验法,利用乌鲁木齐地区市区及近郊气象站近50年的年平均气温数据,分析了乌鲁木齐地区气温的年代际变化及突变;采用相关分析方法与趋势拟合等方法,生成乌鲁木齐年平均温度与指征其城市化6项指标的函数关系图。结果发现:(1)近50年乌鲁木齐地区的年平均气温缓慢上升,城区气温高于郊区,城区站增温率为0.2℃/10a,郊区站为0.245℃/10a,总增温率为0.225℃/10a。(2)采用Mann-Kendall检验法分析得出年平均气温在2000年发生了由低到高的突变。(3)乌鲁木齐市城市人口、GDP、全社会固定资产投资总额、建成区面积、能源消耗与年平均气温有着显著的相关性,表明城市化进程与气温变化有密切关系。

Based on annual mean air temperature data of recent 50 years at 2 weather stations in Urumqi,the methods of linear trend,accumulated variance,Mann- Kendall test are employed to study the decadal changes and the jumping of the air temperature in Urumqi,and trend- fitting and correlation analysis are adopted to study the relations betw een annual mean air temperature and urbanization. Based on the research w orking above,w e concluded that( 1) In recent 50 years,the annual mean air temperature in Urumqi region have been ascending slow ly,the temperature of urban is higher than the suburban,the rate of urban station temperature w as 0. 2 ℃ /10a,suburban station 0. 245 ℃ / 10a,the total rate of w arming 0. 225℃ /10a;( 2) M- K method detect the temperature mutation in 2000 in Urumqi;( 4) The population,GDP,total social fixed asset investment,the area of buildings completed,energy consumption and the annual mean temperature in Urumqi have significant correlations,w hich show s there is relationship betw een urbanization and the annual mean temperature.