中国商业银行非利息业务发展的影响因素研究——基于金融危机前后13家上市银行面板数据

Research on the Factors of Development of Noninterest Activities of Chinese Commercial Banks——Based on the Panel Data Before and After Crisis of 13 Listed Banks

文章选用中国13家上市商业银行2002～2011年季度面板数据,建立了商业银行非利息业务发展的固定影响分析实证模型,有效识别了中国商业银行非利息业务内外部影响因素,探究了2008年金融危机对银行未来非利息业务发展的影响。实证结果显示,2008年金融危机后,银行规模扩张、非银行金融机构规模扩张及社会理财需求增加对中国商业银行非利息业务有显著正向影响,而银行收益率提高、银行存贷比增加及外资银行规模扩张对中国商业银行非利息业务发展有显著负向影响。另外,此次危机触发了中国商业银行业以更严谨的态度对待非利息业务发展及监管。

This paper selects panel data from 2002to 2011of 13China's listed commercial banks.It establishes fixed-effects cross-sectional model to analyze the development of noninterest income of China's commercial banks.It identifies the external and internal factors of noninterest income.Furthermore,it explores the effect of the financial crisis in 2008on the development of noninterest income of China's commercial banks in the future.Results indicate that the scale expansion of the banks,the scale expansion of non-bank financial institutions and the increase of social financing management need have significant effects on noninterest activities' development,respectively;while,the rise of return on asset,the increase of loan to deposit ratio and the scale expansion of foreign banks have negative effects on noninterest activities' development.In addition,the financial crisis pushed Chinese banks to exert stricter regulations on the development of noninterest activities.