供求关系视角下的中国老年照料服务资源分析

Study on the Care Resources for the Elderly in the Perspective of Relationship between Supply and Demand

本文动态地考察我国未来老年照料服务资源供给和需求的平衡状况,研究发现,尽管未来中国养老服务资源呈现逐渐增加的态势,但是中国未来养老服务资源依然面临很大缺口:2013-2050年每年有2 000-3 000万老年人口的入住养老院的愿望无法得到满足,每年有2 000-4 000万张养老床位缺口,专业护理人员缺口每年从2013年的2万增加到2050年的15万。面对未来我国养老服务资源的巨大缺口,本文建议加快养老服务机构建设,完善养老照料服务相关配套政策,健全社会养老服务政策体系,大力发展老龄产业和老龄事业,加快发展养老服务业,完善市场导向型养老照料政策体系,充分发挥社会力量在发展养老服务业中的主体作用。

This paper dynamically examined the change of the balance between supply and demand of care resources for the Chinese elderly in next few decades and concluded that from 2013 to 2050 there are 20 ~ 30 million of the elderly each year who are willing to live in the house for the aged but does make it and 20 ~ 40 millions of beds gap each year for the aged,while the gap of employees and professionals is increasing each year while the gap of employees increase from 100,000 in 2013 to 2 million in 2050 and the gap of professionals increase from 20,000 in 2013 to 150,000 in 2050. In order to fill in the gaps of care resources for the elderly,it is necessary to speed up the construction of house for the aged,improve the related policy for the care service for the elderly,polish the policy system of the social care for the aged,vigorously develop the aging industry,accelerate the development of care services for the aged,improve the market- oriented care policy system for the aged,and bring the role of social forces in the full play of the development of care service for the elderly.