冻土区输油管道服役性能可靠度评价

Evaluation of the Reliability of Oil Pipeline Serving Performance in Permafrost Region

中俄原油管道(漠河—大庆段)穿越约500 km多年冻土区,沿线地形起伏,水系和沼泽发育,冻土工程地质条件复杂。管道服役性能的影响因素多样化。本文综合考虑了冻土条件,冻土与管道的相互作用等影响多年冻土区管道服役性能的6个方面,15个子项作为评价指标。运用层次分析法和模糊数学理论提出了多年冻土区输油管道服役性能的评价模型,及冻土区输油管道服役性能的评价方法。该方法考虑各子项的影响权重与层次关系,最终得到综合可靠度评价值。基于漠大线管道监测数据,应用模型对其服役性能的可靠度进行了评价。

The China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline( Mohe-Daqing section) runs through the permafrost area for about 500 km across mountains,forests and wetlands with complicated engineering geological conditions. The fuzzy synthetic model is built by adopting AHP theory considering 15 factors in 6 aspects such as frozen soil condition,interaction between frozen soil and pipeline, which may affect the pipeline serving performance reliability in permafrost regions. A fuzzy synthetic evaluation method is developed based on the serving performance reliability analysis with considering the weight and hierachy of subitems. Based on data from the Pipeline Monitoring System of Mohe-Daqing section the service reliabitity is evaluated.