试论伊朗的“自主性”地区崛起

Iran's“Autonomously”Regional Rise

伊朗是一个地区性大国,拥有崛起为地区性领袖国家的潜质。伊朗现阶段的定位是"自主性"地区崛起。由长期的历史辉煌、屈辱以及不安全感复合而成的复兴梦想,是伊朗崛起诉求的持久动力和目标。伊朗现有的国力基础和资源潜力为其自主性地区崛起提供了可能。21世纪初期的阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争以及始自2010年底的西亚北非变局,造就了对伊朗崛起总体有利的地区环境。核导武器是伊朗自主性地区崛起的保障性条件,伊朗最终要实现"拥核崛起"。与此同时,伊朗的自主性地区崛起也存在着内外诸多制约因素。其中,美国对伊朗的态度政策最为根本。当前阶段,外部对伊朗崛起的阻抑主要体现在伊朗核问题上。对此,国际制裁、军事打击和政权颠覆是三种可能途径。但从现有情况分析,上述途径尚不能确保成功阻止伊朗核事业。

Iran,as a regional power,has the potential to rise as the regional leader.The orientation of Iran at the present stage is to realize its 'autonomously'regional rise.The renaissance dream of Iran compounded by the long history of glory,humiliation and insecurity,is the lasting motivation and goal of Iran's rise. Iran's existing comprehensive national strength and potential resources provide the possibility for its rise. In the early 21st century,the wars in Afghanistan and in Iraq,together with the changeable situation in West Asia and North Africa,created overall for a favorable environment Iran' s rise. Nuclear weapon and missile are the security conditions of Iran's rise. And in the end,Iran will achieve a 'nuclear power rise'. Meanwhile,there are many restricting factors inside and outside,among which,the US attitude towards Iran is the most fundamental. In the current stage,external suppression on Iran's rise is mainly embodied in the Iran's nuclear issue. In this regard,sanctions,military strike and regime change are three possible approaches. But from the analysis of the existing situation,the three above- mentioned approaches can not ensure the success to stop Iran's nuclear industry.