试论菲律宾挑衅中国南海主权的政策逻辑

Logic of Philippine's Provocative Policy on South China Sea

一国的外交及安全决策是国内国际诸多因素综合作用的结果。然而,在一国的外交及安全决策中,作为主要决策者的政治领导人显然具有其他任何因素所不可替代的作用。在菲律宾挑衅中国南海主权的决策过程中,总统、外交部长及国防部长是菲律宾外交及安全的主要决策主体,尤其是总统更是具有举足轻重的地位和作用。因此,本文尝试从意愿的形成、能力的获得及策略的调整等个体认知角度,分别探究影响菲律宾南海挑衅政策及其变化的主要动因,并揭示菲律宾阿基诺三世政府挑衅中国南海主权的政策逻辑,为分析中国周边小国、弱国挑衅大国和强国的政策逻辑提供一种分析框架。

The diplomatic and security policy is the result of combination of domestic and international factors. The political leader,however,as the main decision makers,has the most irreplaceable effect that on other factors can replace. The President,Foreign Minister and Defense Minister are the primary decision makers in the Philippines' decision process of South China Sea policy. The president has the decisive role and effect. Therefore,this paper attempts to explore the main factor that affects the provocative policy logic of Philippines from individual perceive view respectively such as: the formal of willing,the obtaining of capabilities and strategy adjustment and so on. Thus,it can reveal the provocative policy logic of Aquino III government on South China Sea and supply an analysis frame for understanding the logic of small and weak powers provoking big and strong powers.