政府间转移支付、预算软约束与地区外溢

Intergovernmental Transfer Payment,Soft Budget Constraints and Regional Spillovers

文章根据中国2002—2012年31个省区的面板数据,运用一步系统广义矩(sysGMM)回归方法,建立转移支付预期实证模型,对转移支付是否诱发地方政府的预算软约束行为及其外溢范围以及其与税收竞争和财政竞争的综合影响进行了系统的实证研究。研究发现:转移支付预算软约束问题并非发生于个别省份,争夺转移支付的连锁反应促使各地区共同参与从而形成策略互补性质的竞争。其不仅对地方政府自主筹资产生了负面激励,同时在控制了自有财力下降的潜在影响和转移支付的"粘蝇纸效应"后,仍能够发现预算软约束对财政支出的扩张效应。这种支出扩张中体现了转移支付预算软约束与财政竞争之间的替代效应和收入效应的共同影响。

Based on the panel data of 31 Chinese provinces from 2002 to 2012,this paper uses sys-GMM and constructs an empirical model concerning transfer payment expectation to make a systematic empirical study of soft budget constraints of local governments resulting from transfer payment,the spillovers of transfer payment and the comprehensive effects of transfer payment on taxation and fiscal competition.It comes to the conclusion that soft budget constraints resulting from transfer payment do not occur in several provinces and the chain reaction to the competition for transfer payment promotes mutual participation among regions,thereby forming the competition featured by strategic complement.It has negative effect on self-financing of local governments,and after the control of the potential impact of the decrease in self-finance and the flypaper effect of transfer payment,soft budget constraints also have the positive effect on the increase in fiscal expenditure,which embodies the co-effects of substitutive effect between soft budget constraints of transfer payment and fiscal competition,and income effect.