浙江抗台减灾综合能力研究

Research on comprehensive ability of Zhejiang Province in typhoon disaster resistance and reduction

以浙江省1984年至2011年的区域抗台减灾综合能力为研究对象,从区域灾害监测预报、区域预警通知、区域防护、抗台物资运输、区域财政救灾、区域抗台医疗救助和区域抗台救灾意识7个方面对浙江省抗台减灾能力进行了综合评价。采用因子分析法从20个评价指标中提取3个公共因子,分别归属为基础设施特征因子、人才力量特征因子和社会经济救助特征因子,可解释几乎90%的信息。利用回归法对公共因子和综合得分进行排名,通过熵权法和实际台风案例对结果进行验证。研究结果表明,2011年的抗台减灾综合能力最强,1984年抗台减灾综合能力最弱。针对研究结果,提出了浙江抗台减灾综合能力提高的具体措施。

Taking comprehensive ability for regional typhoon disaster reduction in Zhejiang Province from 1984 to2011 as the research object,the regional typhoon disaster reduction ability was comprehensively evaluated from the aspects of regional disaster monitoring and prediction,regional early warning notice,regional protection,typhoon resistant material transportation,regional financial disaster relief,regional typhoon medical treatment and regional typhoon disaster relief awareness. Three common factors from the 20 evaluation indices were extracted with the method of factor analysis,which can explain almost 90% of the variable information,and belongs with the infrastructure characteristic factors,talent power characteristic factors and social economic rescue characteristic factors. Regression method was used to rank the common factor and composite scores,entropy method and typhoon cases were used to validate the results. The results show that the best comprehensive disaster mitigation ability is in2011,and the worst comprehensive disaster mitigation ability is in 1984. Concrete measures improring the comprehensive typhoon disaster reduction ability in Zhejiang Province are proposed based on the results.