能源消费CO_2排放研究综述

Review of energy-related CO_2 emission in response to climate change

气候变化已成为当前国际社会所关注的热点问题,而CO2排放是影响全球变暖的主要因素。本文基于多学科视角,综合运用文献资料法、对比分析法,梳理了CO2排放的估算方法、排放强度、排放绩效、排放影响因素和未来排放模拟方法的研究进展,分析了存在的主要问题,并展望了下一步的研究重点与方向。结果表明,CO2排放研究发展迅速并且成果丰富,CO2排放是不同因素众多变量之间相互作用、相互依赖的一个综合复杂的系统工程;多学科融合框架下地理与空间因素重视不足,研究尺度以全球化、国际化为主,多尺度研究逐步凸显并开始关注尺度效应,但省级、城市尺度的面板研究仍匮乏;面板数据逐步受到关注,动态分析对比评价仍待完善。未来研究在变量选取上应更加全面细化,尝试多尺度综合分析,逐步凸显城市碳排放研究,需更加关注理论结合本地化实践,运用系统的思维和方法掌握差异化趋势研究。

Climate change has in recent years become an environmental issue globally. Through deepening research into and analysis of the phenomenon, most climate scientists now identify greenhouse gases, most notably CO2 emissions, as constituting the main cause of global warming. Based on literature study and comparative analysis, this article discusses the progress of the research of CO2 emissions from a multidisciplinary perspective and analyzes the calculation methods, intensity, performance, influencing factors, and forecasting methods of CO2 emissions. This article also discusses the remaining issues and future directions of the research on CO2 emissions. Results indicate that the research of CO2 emissions has gained fruitful achievements and has experienced rapid development in recent years. CO2 emission is an integrated, complex, interdependent system engineering of numerous variables interplay between different factors. Under the framework of multidisciplinary integration,geographical and spatial factors have however received insufficient attention. Research scale has mainly focused on global and international levels, although recent studies have begun to highlight multi-scale research and pay attention to scale effect. Panel study of provincial and city scales is still scarce. Panel data are gradually receiving attention; however, dynamic analysis and comparative assessment still need improvement. Future research should focus on creating more detailed and comprehensive datasets, exploring multi- scale integrated research,and highlighting city scale analysis. Furthermore, future study should emphasize adapting theories to localized practices, employing systemic thinking and methods for differentiated trend research.