我国卫生总费用区间预测研究:基于可拓聚类模型

Study on Interval Forecast of National Total Health Expenditure: Based on Extension Cluster Model

目的:利用可拓聚类模型对2013年卫生总费用进行区间预测。方法:通过对我国1990—2012年卫生总费用及代表社会经济、人口状况、城市化水平和卫生服务提供等方面7个影响因素历史数据进行聚类,利用可拓理论计算关联度,得出所属类别为第二类。结果:根据所属类别,得出2013年卫生总费用为31 784.75亿元到33 055.53亿元。结论:卫生总费用持续增长,需多措并举,实现其良性发展。

Objective:To make an interval forecast of 2013 national total health expenditure based on extension cluster model.Methods:Based on the cluster of the historical data of total health expenditure and 7 determinants representing social economics, de-mographic situation, urbanization and health supply, correlation scores and the category were figured out as the secondary categorybased on extincs theory.Results:Based on the belonged category, the total health expenditure in 2013 would reach between3 178.475 and 3 305.553 billion yuan.Conclusion:The total expenditure on health would keep increasing. Multiple measures shouldbe conducted simultaneously for its benign development.