中国就业统计的一致性:事实和政策涵义

Consistency of China's Statistics on Employment:Stylized Facts and Implications to Public Policies

针对国内外学术界对中国关于就业统计的疑问,文章从就业增长、真实失业水平和劳动参与率变化等方面,系统考察统计数字的一致性问题。文章揭示了下岗与登记失业之间的消长关系、按照国际通行定义计算的城镇调查失业率,以及劳动参与率的变化及其原因,并有针对性地提出了公共政策建议,即用树立就业优先原则统领宏观经济政策和产业政策,清除不利于劳动力市场发育从而不利于扩大就业的政策与规制;通过建立和完善社会保障制度,以及实施积极的就业扶助政策,帮助特殊的一代人顺利实现转轨。

There are widely existing doubts and confusion in international and China's research circle about statistics on employment and unemployment, which lead to misunderstanding of the real situation in labor market development and lead to a conclusion that the current situation of unemployment is not manageable in China. However, various and sometimes seemingly unreal sources on employment are actually consistent. In this paper, the trade-off between numbers of lay--off and registered unemployment, surveyed unemployment rate by international standard, and changes in labor force participation are examined in a consistent context. The paper concludes by suggesting that the government should give priority to employment in its macroeconomic policy and industrial policies, and to establish a proactive mechanism and safety net to help the transitional generation in re--employment.