中国的资本流动:1982～2002

China's Capital Flow between 1982 and 2002

文章分析了1982～2002年我国国际收支平衡表的结构特征,并对利率平价理论在我国的变形进行了解释。由于自1994年以来中美利率和双边汇率的组合使得套利资本的跨境流动可以获得稳定、高额的利差和汇差的双重收益,论文对此进行了经验检验,证明在我国不仅仅是单向的资本流出,而且存在资本内流进行套利的情况,这种状态使得说明我国对资本账户的管制趋于无效。我国资本流动的特征呈现出双向、周期性、无风险套利性和非均衡性。

This article analyses the structural characteristics of China's statements of the balance of international payment between 1982 to 2002, and interprets the deformation, in China, of the theory of interest rate parity. We in this paper will make an empirical examination of the fact that, since 1994, the mix of China's and USA's interest rate and bilateral exchange rate has made the transnational flow of arbitrage capital for people be able to obtain double yields because of steady and great interest rate difference and exchange rate difference, and will prove that there exists in China arbitrage not only by way of outflow of capital, but also by way of inflow of capital, which helps to show that China's control over capital account tends to be invalid. China's capital flow is characterized by its bidirectionalness, periodicity, riskless arbitrage and imbalance.