利用Markov过程预测安吉土地利用格局的变化

Forecast of land use pattern change in Anji County of Zhejiang: an application of Markov process

根据浙江安吉山区2个时期山地资源清查资料获得的土地利用类型数据,成功地确定了土地利用类型的转移矩阵,并用Markov链模型预测了该山区土地利用类型变化趋势。结果表明,当前该区的土地利用格局正处在一种荒山、农田、居民点及水域逐渐减少,林地、果园用地逐渐增加的变化状态,而且这种变化将持续很长时间,最后达到以山区林地78 4%为主体,同时湿地在不断减少的新的土地利用格局。

Based on thd data obtained from fixed plots for continuously surveying mountainous resources during two different perods,thd transition probability of land use pattern in Anji district of Zhejiang was defined,and the tendency of its change was forecasted with application of Markov process.The results show that over a long period of time,the barren moutain area,the arable land area,water area and the area occupied by residence will be decreased gradually and forest land area and orchard area will be increased day by day.Finally,the land use pattern will be lied in a stable state.At that time,a new land pattern will be formed by dominance of forest land area of 78.4% while wet land areas decrease more than ever.