我国农村劳动力转移的长期预测分析

The Long-run Forecasting Analysis for Rural Labor Transfer in China

运用演化博弈理论建立我国农村劳动力转移的三部门(农村部门、城镇非正式部门和正式部门)一般化模仿者动态预测模型,对农村劳动力转移最终稳定状态和长期趋势进行预测分析。研究表明,稳定状态下农村就业比例在20%以下;基期数据中我国城乡收入差距越大,最终稳定状态下城镇部门就业比例越大,农村部门就业比例越小;农村劳动力转移的动态过程渐进稳定收敛到均衡点;转移过程的长期趋势与学习障碍无关。

This paper uses the evolutionary game theory to build the generalized replicator dynamic forecasting model, that includes three departments. It forecasts the finally stable state and long-run tendency of Chinese rural labor transfer. It (draws) conclusions that rural department employing proportion will be below 20% in the finished stable state. The more (urban-rural) income disparity in basal period statistical data, the less urban department employing proportion and the more (rural) department employing proportion in the finally stable state. The dynamic function asymptotic stable converges to the (Nash) equilibrium. The long-run trend for rural labor transfer is independent of learning barriers.