中国农村金融发展与经济增长(1978～2001)实证分析

Rural Financial Development and Economic Growth in China (1978～2001)Empirical Research

基于VAR模型,利用Granger因果检验法,对中国农村1978～2001年间金融发展与经济增长的关系作出实证研究。发现中国农村正规金融的发展对农村经济增长并没有起到"供给主导"作用,而是处于一个严重滞后的"需求遵从"地位。实证研究表明,农村正规金融相对于农村经济增长是缺乏效率的,而农村非正规金融值得关注。

By the Granger causality test based on the VAR model, this paper empirically researches into rural financial development and economic growth in China in the period from 1978 to 2001.Rural formal financial development didn't play the role of leading supply, and it slowly followed the demand of rural economic growth. This paper shows that rural formal finance was inefficient to rural economic growth and that rural informal finance should be paid close attention to.