中国历年生态足迹计算与发展可持续性评估

Time series of ecological footprint in China between 1962～2001: Calculation and assessment of development sustainability

可持续发展的定量测度是可持续发展战略得以实施的前提条件。加拿大学者 Mathis Wackernagel发展完善的生态足迹模型就是一种测量可持续性的方法。该方法通过计算支持特定区域人类社会所有消费活动所需要的土地 (生态足迹 )与该区域可提供的生物生产性土地 (生态承载力 )相比较来判断区域发展的可持续性。简单介绍了生态足迹模型的基本概念、研究进展、计算方法 ;对中国历年的生态足迹进行了实证研究 ,结果表明 :从 196 2～ 2 0 0 1年 ,中国人均生态承载力逐步下降 ,人均生态足迹则逐步上升 ,目前中国人均生态足迹已经超过人均生态承载力 ,生态赤字出现 ,并持续扩大 。

The ecological footprint (EF) model has been introduced to China and has attracted much attention from scholars in recent years. As a model, ecological footprint can measure the resource requirements in regional consumption activities. Biological capacity measure regional resource supplies. When ecological footprint surpasses the biological capacity, the region will be in a state of unsustainable development. This paper calculates the ecological footprint and biological capacity to explore the ecosystem fluctuations brought by the population and economic growth. The calculation results show that there was an obvious ecological footprint (per capita) increase and biological capacity (per capita) decrease in China between 1962～2001. An ecological deficit first appeared around 1980 and then continues to grow. In 2001, the ecological footprint, biological capacity, and ecological deficit (per capita) of China was 1.4891hm^2, 1.0532hm^2, 0.4359hm^2 respectively. The resources used surpassed the resource supply 41%, and the development at this rate was unsustainable. The increase of ecological footprint is mostly due to the great increase of fossil energy consumption brought on China's rapid industrialization and urbanization. While the cropland proportion of ecological footprint decreased from 57% in 1962 to 29.7% in 2001, the fossil energy proportion of the ecological footprint grew from 23% in 1962 to 47.6% in 2001. Such growth in ecological footprint and deficit means that there is a greater pressure on the ecosystem. To some extent, technology improvements and trade can play a role in alleviating this ecological pressure. In this research, the results also show increased efficiency in resource-use, which is demonstrated by the decrease of ecological footprint per 10~4 yuan GDP from 14.93hm^2 to 1.87hm^2. At the same time, the net import footprint proportion of ecological footprint grew from 6% in 1962 to 15% in 2001. This means that trade can have made a greater role in transferring ecological pressure out of China. Despite these improvements, the ecological deficit of China is growing and threatening the sustainable development of China and world. In China, the ecological footprint proportions of the world increased from 0.07% in 1962 to 0.14% in 2001. All these results demonstrate that China is now in a status of unsustainable development. Suitable technology improvement, the change of unreasonable production and consumption model, as well as correct trade choice are necessary for sustainable development.