人口转变的经济效应及其对中国经济增长持续性的影响

The Impacts of Demographic Transition on the Sustainability of Economic Growth in China

文章使用中国分省资料,对人口因素和经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。与其他跨国的经验研究类似,文章对中国分省资料的实证分析表明,人口因素对经济增长的影响是动态的。出生率增加对经济增长的负面影响越来越小;新增劳动力对中国经济增长的积极影响则越发明显。从维持经济持续增长源泉的角度出发,使人口政策实现动态调整已经具有一定的必要性。

Using provincial data, this paper empirically explores the relationship between demographic factors and economic growth. Similar to other cross-country studies, this paper indicates the dynamic effects of demographic factors on economic growth. The negative impact of birth rate on economic growth is being impaired. The positive effects of labor increase on economic growth are becoming more and more significant. From the perspective of sustaining the economic growth, it is necessary to adjust the population policy timely.