公共投资与经济增长的相关分析——中国数据的计量检验

The Correlation Analysis for Public Investment and Economic Growth——The Econometric Test of Data from China

本文在现有文献研究的基础上,依据中国改革开放20多年的实际数据,运用内生增长理论构建计量经济模型,对公共物质资本投资、公共人力资本投资及R＆D投资与经济增长的相关性进行了协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,结果发现:三种公共投资具有不同程度的正向经济增长效应,并且其促进经济增长的路径也不相同。公共物质资本投资主要是通过资本积累效应拉动经济增长,而公共人力资本投资及研发投资则是通过提高全要素生产率及外部性效应促进经济增长。并且,在不同的发展阶段上,三种公共投资与经济增长的因果关系及驱动机制又有所不同。针对实证结果得出结论及政策建议,进而为优化我国公共投资政策提供决策依据。

By studying available literature and statistics in China for over 20 years' of reform and opening up, this article establishes econometric models by means of endogenous growth theory to carry out cointegration test and Granger causal relation test on the correlations between public physical capital investment, public labor capital investment, R&D capital investment and economic growth. The findings are that those three public investments possess different positive effect on economic growth in different ways. Public physical capital investment mainly depends on capital accumulation effect to promote economic growth, however, public labor capital investment and R&D expenditure mainly on increasing all-factor productivity and external effect. In addition, there are different causal relations and driving mechanisms between those three public investment and economic growth on different development phases. Optional policies are suggested in view of the positive results, so as to provide decision basis for improving public investment policy of our country.