我国利率市场化后基准利率选择的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Choice of Benchmark Interest Rate after Interest Rates Liberalization in China

利率市场化是我国金融改革深化的必然趋势。这要求央行选择一个合适的基准利率。根据国外经验,再贴现利率、银行间同业拆借市场利率、银行间债券市场回购利率和银行间债券市场现券交易利率可能为合适的基准利率。本文从七个方面对这四个利率进行了比较和实证研究,结论是银行间同业拆借市场和债券回购市场的利率更适合做基准利率。但对这两个利率的最终选择还有赖于客观经济条件的变化发展,为使它们更好地发挥基准利率的职能,还需要创造一些条件。

Interest rate liberalization is the inevitable trend of China's financial deepening, which requires the central bank to choose an appropriate benchmark interest rate Based on the experiences abroad, the rediscount rate, the interbank interest rate, the interbank bond interest rate and repo rate can all possibly be used as the benchmark interest rate This paper conducts the comparable and empirical research on the four kinds of interest rates from seven aspects, which concludes that the interbank interest rate and the interbank bond repo rate are better benchmark rates than the other two The ultimate choice on the two interest rates depends on the development of objective economic situation Some conditions should be provided so that they can play a better role as the benchmark rate