数值天气预报业务模式现状与展望

AN OVERVIEW ON RECENT PROGRESSES OF THE OPERATIONAL NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS

20 0 4年是数值天气预报理论提出 10 0周年 ,同时也是数值天气预报业务化应用 5 0周年。经过百年的发展历程 ,数值天气预报学科有了飞跃的发展。特别是最近 10多年来 ,大气科学以及地球科学的研究进展 ,高速度、大容量的巨型计算机及网络系统的快速发展 ,更加快了数值天气预报的发展步伐。文中从模式动力框架、物理过程参数化、模式程序软件等方面对数值天气预报业务模式现状进行了简要综述 ,对存在的问题进行了探讨 ,并对数值天气预报业务模式的未来发展作了展望。当前数值天气预报业务模式发展的特点有 :(1) 2 0世纪 90年代中期以来 ,各国的全球和区域模式水平和垂直分辨率都有明显提高 ,且模式物理过程也同步进行改进 ;数值预报业务模式已进入了大规模并行计算的阶段 ;(2 )主要发达国家和中国都正在致力于研发各自的新业务数值预报模式———非静力 (多尺度 )一体化模式或非静力中尺度模式 ,部分国家的新一代天气 气候一体化数值模式已业务运行 ;(3)业务数值预报模式正在朝着不断完善的方向发展。随着模式分辨率的提高 ,云物理过程、陆面过程和湍流过程、考虑坡度 -坡向因子的辐射过程等在模式中的参数化方案 ,以及模式垂直坐标的选择越来越受重视 。

The year 2004 is a special year for Numerical Weather Prediction, because it is the 100 anniversary for proposition of Numerical Weather Prediction theory, as well as the 50 anniversary of operational implementation of NWP. Now a century has past, NWP theory and application have made a great progress, particularly in recent more than 10 years, with rapid development of atmospheric science and geoscience, as well as high performance computers, the improvements of NWP are accelerating. In this paper, it is tried to give a brief overview of the dynamic core, physical parameterization and model program software of current operational NWP models, to discuss on the existing problems, and to outlook the future development of the operational NWP models. The main development features of the current operational NWP models are as : (1)Since the middle 90's of last century, the resolutions of the global/regional NWP have been increased considerably. The physical schemes have been improved by incorporating with the dynamical cores. We are in the phase where the parallelized codes were widely used in the NWP model of the operational meteorological centers in the world. (2) The developed countries, as well as CMA (China Meteorological Administration) have made a lot of efforts to develop their own new generation of operational NWP models-non-hydrostatical (multi-scale)unified models or non-hydrostatical meso-scale models. And some of the new generation of weather-climate unified models, have been put into operation. (3) The operational NWP models are progressing continuously. With the increasing of the model resolution, more and more attention will be paid to the microphysics, land surface, 3 dimensional turbulences, radiation with the impacts of topographical slopes, choice of the vertical coordinates as well. The behaviors of these physical schemes are essential for further improvements of operational NWP models.