散度变化在中尺度对流系统分析预报中之应用

The application of divergence variation to analysis and forecasting of mesoscale convective systems

本文介绍了近年来国内外进行中尺度系统的分析和预报中,对风场的散度变化的研究和应用。提出中尺度散度扬的配置及变化与中尺度天气(如强天气和暴雨)有十分密切的关系,它往往能预示中尺度天气的出现。在此基础上,还介绍了利用散度方程某些特征项来研究未来中尺度散度扬的变化,从而达到定性地应用的目的。从近年来国内外的应用看,这种努力是成功的。

The recent study of divergence variation of wind fields and its application to mesoscale system are introduced. It is indicated that the pattern of mesoscale divergence and its change are closely related to the severe weather, which could often predict the appearance of mesoscale weather. Certain terms of divergence equation have been practised in severe weather. The successful results are also discribed here.