海平面上升对珠江三角洲城市排水和河流水质影响预测

THE EFFECTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE TO CITY DRAINAGE AND WATER QUALITY OF THE PEARL RIVER DELTA

本文根据城市河流数十年的水位变化和近年来水质现状,采用稳态模型即Thomann模型计算并预测未来30～5睥水质变化趋势,海平面上升所造成的城市排水、河网汇潮点变化及河流水质恶化等不良影响。

According to the statistics of data,it is estimated that the Pearl River Delta will rise by 20— 70 cm in coming fifty years.With the economy developing rapidly in the main cities of this area such as Guangzhou,Foshan,Shenzhen,Zhuhai,Jiangmen,Zhongshan and Dongguan,it has been calculated that on average the industrial wastewater drained into the rivers will increase by 4.1 percent per year,the exhausted pollutants by 7.4 percent per year,and the living wastewa- ter by 21.5 percent per year.According to the information of the river water level changes in the past decades and the water quality of rivers in recent years,using the results from the study on the water environmental capacity and water quality planning of the Shenzhen River and the Fen- jiang River,the authors predict the changing tendency of river water quality in each city by ap- plying THOMANN Model.Because the rise of sea level will upraise the water level of river,the time that the pollutants stay in the river will last longer.The rise of sea level will also make changes in city drainage and the reflux point of rivers,leading to deterioration of water.