库兹涅茨人均收入决定论质疑——兼论我国产业结构升级的政策取向

Doubt on kuznets Theory on Per Capita Income Determinism

库兹涅茨的人均收入决定论认为,经济的增长是产业结构转变的原因。作者根据格兰杰(Granger)因果关系检验理论利用我国的时间序列数据对这一结论进行了证伪分析,结果表明,改革开放以来我国产业结构的高级化变迁并不是由经济的增长带来的,相反,产业结构的调整却是我国长期以来经济高速增长的原因。 为此,我国必须大力发展高新技术产业,促进产业结构的优比与升级。

According to Kuznets theory on per capita income determinism, the economic growth determines the transition of industrial structure. However, the author brings out some analysis, which is based on Granger's cointegration theory and time series data from China, and the result demonstrates that it is the high speed economic growth rate determines the industrial structure transition. Hence, the paper suggests encouraging the development of hi-tech industry as a way to promote the perfect of industry structure.