油价波动对中国经济的影响研究

THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF RISING OIL AND GAS PRICES ON CHINA ECONOMY

本文在市场调查的基础上.应用投入产出分析技术.定量地研究了石油、天然气价格波动可能对中国经济带来的影响.研究结果表明.如果原油价格上涨100％,全国物价的平均水平将上涨2.90％.全国消费品价格的平均水平将上涨1.36％.受影响最大的部门主要有石油加工业、电力及供暖业、交通客运业、交通贷运业等;受影响最小的部门主要有林业、农业、邮电业、饮食业、商业、渔业等.如果天然气价格上涨100％.全国物价的平均水平将上涨0.17％.全国消费品价格的平均水平将上涨0.07％.本文还比较了原油、天然气、煤炭、成品油和电力价格波动对中国经济的影响.

The socialism market economic system is openning the domestic oil & gas markets, with a target of joining in the world petroleum market system in the future. This means the old pricing system that petroleum prices decided by the governments will be dividually out of use, and that petroleum prices will vary with the market factors frequently. Basing on the market suevey and applying the Input/Output technique, I' have found out that if the prices of crude/gas rise by 100%: 1. the natioal price level will be up 2. 90%/0.17%, and consumer prices up 1. 36%/0. 07%. 2. almost sectors of the economy will be impacted. 3. petroleum refineries, electricity & heating production and supply, freight transport, passenger transport are the four sectors felt the impacts of rising crude prices most sensitively. 4. electrcity and heating production & supply, construction, and non-energy industrial sectors are the three most sensitive ones to rising natural gas prices.