利用GARP生态位模型预测日本松干蚧在中国的地理分布

Prediction of potential geographic distribution areas for the pine bark scale, Matsucoccus matsumurae (Kuwana) (Homoptera: Margarodidae) in China using GARP modeling system

采用GARP生态位模型预测分析了松属植物的重要入侵害虫日本松干蚧Matsucoccusmatsumurae (Kuwana)在中国的潜在地理分布。对现有分布地点的分析表明 :日本松干蚧在我国的扩散蔓延有三个主要阶段 ,即零散分布期、逐步扩散期和迅速蔓延期。全国范围内的预测显示 :该虫可以在中国 2 7个省、市、自治区生存 ,主要集中在东北和东部沿海地区 ;在全国扩散的趋势是向内陆发展。对辽宁省和吉林省地进一步预测分析验证了该方法的准确性 ,其蔓延趋势与全国的预测结果相一致 ;同时还确定了 6个高度危险区和 13个影响该虫扩散的关键区。

The pine bark scale, Matsucoccus matsumurae (Kuwana), is a major invasive pest of Pinus trees. Based on the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction modeling system (GMS), the potential geographic distribution of the scale in China were analyzed. The results indicated that the spreading of the scale in China underwent three main phases, i.e., sporadic distribution phase, gradually spreading phase and rapidly spreading phase. It was predicated that the population of the pine bark scale could be established in 27 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China, especially in the northeast and the eastern coastal areas, and the expanding direction is upcountry in China. Further predictive analysis with Liaoning and Jilin provinces confirmed the precision of the method, and showed that the expanding direction was consistent with that of the countrywide, and 6 grand risk areas and 13 key areas for subsequent dispersion were further defined for the region.