“国人缺血性心血管病十年发病危险评估方法”在青岛地区的临床应用及分析

Perform analyse on the predictive model of ischemic cardiovascular diseases in Qingdao

目的探讨我国自行开发的'国人缺血性心血管病10年发病危险度评估方法'的临床应用价值.方法采用中国医学科学院心血管病研究所开发的'国人缺血性心血管病10年发病危险评估方法'对青岛市2287名中年干部心血管病发病危险度进行评估,并进行相关分析.结果 (1)10年缺血性心血管病发病危险度<10%者(低危),男性为98.16%,女性为99.39%.发病危险度≥20%者(高危),男性为0.19%,女性为0.15%,这一结果符合我国35～64岁人群缺血性心血管病发病绝对危险的分布情况.(2)在高危人群(绝对危险度≥10%)收缩压、空腹血糖、总胆固醇、体重指数异常检出率分别为100%、20.8%、75%、87.5%.在低危人群(绝对危险度＜10%)收缩压、空腹血糖、总胆固醇、体重指数异常检出率分别为7.31%、3.4%、37.74%、59.26%,两组人群各项指标差异均有统计学意义﹙P＜0.01).结论国人10年缺血性心血管病发病危险评估方法能较准确地检测人群的发病分布情况,有利于对高危人群的简单筛选,在低危人群中,计算个体绝对危险度应根据不同年龄段的平均危险度和最低危险度来评估其发病相对危险度.

Objective To explore the clinical usage of the methods and tools of the 10 year′s risk estimation of ischemic cardiovascular disease (ICVD) in Chinese Methods The risk of ICVD in 2287 middle aged Qingdao people was evaluated by the methods and tools of the 10 year′s risk estimation of ICVD in Chinese, which was developed by Cardiovascular Institute, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Results (1)98 16% of male and 99 39% of female had a 10 year absolute risk of ICVD less than 10% 0 19% of male and 0 15% of female had a 10 year absolute risk of ICVD higher than 20% (2) In the low risk group (absolute risk <10%) detection rate of abnormal SBP, FBG, TC, BMI was 100%, 20 8%, 75%, 87 5% respectively While in the high risk group (absolute risk ≥20%) detection rate of abnormal SBP, FBG, TC, BMI was 7 31%, 3 4%, 37 74%, 59 26% respectively Conclusions The prediction models and simplified tools for estimating 10 year risk of ICVD in Chinese can predict satisfactorily the occurrence of cardiovascular disease in Qingdao area