全国土地利用总体规划目标的生态足迹评价研究

Assessment of ecological footprint of national general land use planning in China

该文采用生态足迹分析对全国土地利用总体规划的目标进行了评价。首先建立全国生态足迹及相关指标的时间序列(1996～2002年),认为2000年由于土地利用结构的控制不力直接导致中国人均生态供给较规划预期值少0.8%,并建立模型对全国土地利用总体规划纲要的远期目标(2010年)以及按照现在中国生态足迹强度发展的预期进行了规划的有无对比的足迹预测对比。计算结果表明,如果按照目前土地利用现状的趋势演变下去,预计到2010年,预期将比规划目标减少2.7%的生态供给,却增加1.53%的生态赤字。并就2001年的全国各省市土地利用现状做了全国生态足迹及其相关指标的区域差异分析。

Based on the general land use planning, the authors established the indices sequences of ecological footprint, ecological supply and ecological deficit (from 1996 to 2002). Therefore, the conclusion that the actual ecological supply per capita in 2000 is 0.8% smaller than the planned value was obtained. Furthermore, by comparing the ecological footprint with planning and the predicted value without planning, the authors figured out the value of ecological deficit per capita with planning (2010) should be 2% smaller than the predicted value without planning. In succession, the paper analyzed the regional structure of ecological footprint of China and some other indices like ecological footprint diversity and eco-economic development capacity. Finally, the author established a simple linear regressive model to analyze the impacts of social and economic driving forces on the indices of ecological deficit ratio.