浙江东部常绿阔叶林次生演替的随机过程模型

THE MARKOV PROCESS MODELLING OF SECONDARY SUCCESSION IN BROADLEAVED EVERGREEN FOREST IN HTE EASTERN PART OF ZHEJIANG PROVINCE, CHINA

植物群落次生演替过程的有限序列在一定意义上构成一随机过程。浙江东部常绿阔叶林次生演替的随机过程系统可以近似地看成线性系统,因而可以用马尔可夫过程描述。本文以群落主要乔木优势种作为马尔可夫过程的状态变量。用“空间序列代替时间序列”的研究方法测得自然次生演替过程和干扰次生演替过程群落主要优势乔木种的更新概率,以此建立了马尔可夫过程的一步平稳转移概率矩阵。应用马尔可夫链模型对常绿阔叶林的自然和干扰次生演替过程进行了模拟。模型还给出了次生演替过程群落主要优势乔木种类的数量动态,为深入研究常绿阔叶林次生演替规律以及林业生产和管理等提供了依据。

The finite series(seres) in the course of plant community succession, in a sense, composes a random process. The secondary succession system of the broad-leaved evergreen forest in the eastern part of Zhejiang province is a linear system which can be described by the Markov process. The quantities of the tree-layer species of plant community are used as state variables of the Markov process. The renewal probability table of the treelayer main species of plant community in the course of natural and perturbation secondary succe- ssion, which is the first step transition matrix of the Markov process, is de- termined with the succession research method of spacial series substituting for time series. The natural secondary succession and the perturbation secon- dary succession are simulated with the Markov process model. Also, the Ma- rkov process model declared the dynamic quantities of main arboreal species of plant community in the course of secondary succession, hence it provided scientific basis for researching thoroughly the laws of broad-leaved evergreen forest secondary succession and managing forest production rationally.