中国-东盟自由贸易区的新政治经济学分析

The New Political-economy Analysis of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area

用新政治经济学及其区域一体化理论来分析,中国 -东盟自由贸易区 (CAFTA)具有如下特征:经济基础的脆弱性,非经济因素的敏感性,国家主义作用的两重性,霸权缺位与高制度变迁成本,相互依存与合作博弈愿望等。因此,推进中国-东盟自由贸易区建设,要充分发挥政府主导型体制的积极作用,实施产业协作,发展产业内贸易;政府的决策要超越利益集团的要求,综合考虑经济、政治和国家战略目标;同时,从降低制度变迁成本的目的出发,中国-东盟自由贸易区可以分步骤、分层次发展,并努力扩大经贸合作的规模与层次。

Analyzed by the new political economy and its theory of regional economic integration, China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) has the following characteristics: vulnerability in economic foundation, sensitivity of non-economic factors, duality of the effect of nationalism, absence of supremacy and high institutional-change cost, and interdependency and aspiration for cooperative game. Therefore, in order to promote the construction of CAFTA, it is imperative to give full play to the positive role of the government-oriented system, practice industrial cooperation and develop intra-industry trade; governments’ decision should surpass the requirement of interest group and take into consideration economic, political and state strategic goals; in the mean time, with the aim of reducing institutional-change cost, CAFTA can develop step by step, and efforts should be made to expand the scale and level of economic and trade cooperation.