美元汇率、通货膨胀与油价

Exchange Rate of US Dollar, Inflation and Oil Price

美元对欧元等主要货币持续走低及通贷膨胀所造成 的美元贬值是导致国际原油名义价格走高的重要原因之一。若按美 元实际价值计算,2004年的实际油价已低于2000年的名义价格。 如果2005年美元对欧元等主要货币继续走软,加上通货膨胀的影 响,将为2005年国际原油名义价格进一步上升提供强有力的支撑, 2005年欧佩克一揽子油价的价格带范围应为32-41美元／桶。

An important factor contributing to the climbing nominal price of international crude is the devaluation of the US dollar. This is due to inflation and a low exchange rate of the dollar against major currencies, such as the Euro. Calculated as real value of US dollars, the real price of oil in 2004 was lower than the nominal price in 2000. The continued weak US dollar against the Euro and other currencies in 2005, plus inflation, will likely result in the further increase in the nominal price of international crude. In 2005, the OPEC price belt will range between USD32-41/bbl.