摘要
目前我国电价仍受管制。由于历史原因,不同类型的电厂继续执行着不同的上网电价。对于火电厂而言,最大的风险就在于煤价的不确定性,在电价不变而煤价上涨的情况下,火电厂的利润必然受到影响,作者在进行合理简化的基础上,提出了现阶段煤价与上网电价联动的动态数学模型,同时指出煤价上涨对不同运营年限的火电厂有不同的影响。最后应用实例对此进行了敏感性分析。
In China at present the electricity price is still regulated. As a result of domestic power industry development history in China, the pool purchasing prices for different types of power generation enterprises are different. For coal-fired plants the coal price fluctuation is the main risk factor of them, under the situation of rising coal price and constant electricity price the profit of coal-fired power plants will be reduced consequently. On the basis of rational simplification, a dynamic mathematical model of pool purchasing price varying with rising coal price at the present stage is proposed. At the same time it is pointed out that the influences of rising coal price on coal-fired power plants with different operation periods are different. Finally, the sensitivity analysis on this problem is carried out by actual example.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第7期7-11,共5页
Power System Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70373017)
华北电力大学重大科研项目预研基金联合资助项目~~
关键词
煤价
上网电价
上涨
管制
利润
风险
影响
火电厂
动态数学模型
波动
Electric industry
Electric power generation
Fossil fuel power plants
Mathematical models
Problem solving
Sensitivity analysis