金融发展、城市化与城乡收入差距——协整分析及其Granger因果检验

Financial Development, Urbanization and Urban-Rural Income Gap in China ——Co-integration Analysis and Granger Causality Test

本文基于VAR模型及其协整分析,利用Granger因果检验法,对中国1 978～2 0 0 2年金融发展、城市化与城乡收入差距的关系作出实证研究。结果表明:金融发展规模与城乡收入差距正相关且两者具有双向的Granger因果关系;金融发展效率与城乡收入差距负相关且两者也具有双向的Granger因果关系;城市化水平与城乡收入差距负相关且前者是后者的Granger原因。

By a VAR model, co-integration analysis and Granger causality test, this paper empirically researches into rural financial development, urbanization and urban-rural income gap in China in the period from 1978 to 2002. The empirical researches show, that a positive correlation and bilateral Granger causality exist between financial development dimension and urban-rural income gap, that a negative correlation and bilateral Granger causality exist between financial development efficiency and urban-rural income gap, and that a negative correlation exists between urbanization and urban-rural income gap and urbanization is Granger cause of urban-rural income gap.