A股估值中必须辩明的两个问题——兼驳A股价值高估论

Valuation of A-Shares: Two Issues in Need of Clarification

2004年是中国股市持续第5年不断创新低的一年,这一年中国股市流通股市值损失高达1200亿元,近70%的股票创出了历史的最低点,投资者亏损累累;同时股市的融资额也大幅减少,全年融资仅900亿元,占当年24000亿社会融资总额的不足4%。谁都知道股市是国民经济的晴雨表,可是中国国民经济的发展持续向好,中国股市的走势却持续低迷。笔者以为是“推倒重来”论的翻版“A股价值高估”论在作祟,并且认为“A股价值高估”论是简单地将A股与H股比较价值水平的形而上学方法得出的错误结论,只有以唯物辩证法为指导,对具体问题具体分析,紧紧抓住沪深股市的特色才能正确认识A股估值的现状。

2004 is the fifth year that the Chinese stock market reaches the new low point constantly from the past years. In this year, as the losses of the circulating stocks' value are up to 120 billion yuan, and nearly 70 percent of the stocks reach the minimum point in the history of Chinese stock market, investors suffer heavy losses; Meanwhile, the financing volume of stock market is only 90 billion yuan, accounting for less than 4% in the whole year's 2,400 billion social financing total value. As we know, the stock market is the barometer of the national economy. Though China has maintained a good momentum of growth in the national economy, the development of Chinese stock market is depressing continuously. In my opinion, the reason for this situation is the view that the value of A shares are over-evaluated, which is the same view of 'making a new start', and which is a wrong view that simply compares A-shares' values with H-shares' in a metaphysics way. Only concentrating on the characteristics of both stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen and analyzing their problems in dialectical ways, can we correctly realize the current situations of the valuation of A-shares.