可计算一般均衡模型的建立及其在评价空气污染健康效应对国民经济影响中的应用

The Assessment of Health Impact of Air Pollution on China's National Economy by Applying a Computable General Equilibrium Model

目的建立我国的可计算一般均衡模型(computablegeneralequilibriummodel,CGE),并评价空气污染造成的健康损害对国民经济的影响。方法利用我国124个部门投入产出表及中国能源平衡表,构建了1个39个生产部门及32种产品的可计算一般均衡模型。立足于宏观经济角度的可计算一般均衡模型以空气污染造成的劳动力损失和超额医疗费用支出作为模型变量,模拟了健康效应对国民经济系统产生影响的机制。结果建立了我国的可计算一般均衡模型。2000年我国空气污染的健康效应导致国内生产总值(GDP)的损失约0.38‰(95%可信区间0.162‰～0.511‰)。结论空气污染不仅威胁居民的健康和生活质量,同时也严重影响国民经济的发展。

Objective To establish computable general equilibrium model, CGE, and assess health impact of air pollution on national economy in China. Methods Based on the current concentration-response relationships provided by international and domestic epidemiological studies, the authors estimated the labor loss and excess medical expenditure led by China's air pollution, 2000. In order to elucidate the mechanism of the health impact on national economy, a computable general equilibrium model containing 39 sectors and 32 commodities was constructed for China. Results The simulation of the model indicated that the health impact due to air pollution has led to a GDP loss by 0.38‰ (95% CI 0.162‰-0.511‰) in China, 2000. Conclusion Air pollution not only has adverse effect on human health, but also retards the development of national economy.